Killing the cull
About Science-Nature –
Accessibility links
- Mobiles
- Skip to content
- Skip to local navigation
- Skip to bbc.co.uk navigation
- Skip to bbc.co.uk search
- Help
- Accessibility Help
- Access keys help
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~10~RS~)
Science aligns against Welsh badger cull
Page last updated at 14:58 GMT, Tuesday, 13 July 2010 15:58 UK
- E-mail this to a friend
The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) was not planning a badger cull in Pembrokeshire as a scientific experiment that would determine whether culling works or not.
It saw the cull as part of a comprehensive plan that would eradicate tuberculosis in the cattle herds of the region, a disease that cost taxpayers £24m in 2008.
Small-scale illegal killing will… increase the incidence of cattle TB
Dr Rosie Woodroffe
ZSL Opinions split after cull stopped
Now, following a judgement in the Court of Appeal in London, the cull is on hold – perhaps permanently.
WAG says it is considering its options.
And although the Badger Trust says it has a written pledge from WAG that it will not appeal, Wales' Chief Veterinary Officer Christianne Glossop told BBC News on exiting the court: "it isn't over".
If WAG still intends to go forward, it could appeal to the Supreme Court, or it could construct a new control order that aims to get round the points on which the Court of Appeal made its ruling.
Balance judgement
The Badger Trust appealed on three grounds, which essentially boiled down to these:
- WAG did not expect the cull to generate a "substantial" reduction in TB incidence, which is required in law
- WAG had failed to balance concern for badgers and nature against the projected benefit to farmers
- WAG's control order covered the whole of Wales, but should have been directed only to the North Pembrokeshire target zone.
On the third point, the three judges were unanimous – WAG was in error.
The exact location of the proposed cull has not been announced
But WAG had conceded as much before the judgement, and was preparing to launch an amended control order within days.
The first two points, which are far more significant, split the judges.
Two agreed with the Badger Trust on both points, while the third agreed with WAG.
Lord Justice Stanley Burnton – one of those siding with the Badger Trust – left the door open for Rural Affairs Minister Elin Jones to get round the balance question, simply by presenting a case showing that harm to badgers had been considered when drawing up the control order.
"Had she done so, this ground would have failed," he opined.
However, Ms Jones and Dr Glossop may find it harder to counter the most fundamental argument of all – that badger culling would not make a substantial cut in the incidence of bovine TB.
The scientific study of most use here is the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT, also known as the Krebs trial) – a vast UK study that saw 11,000 badgers killed in the name of finding out whether culling can be an effective control strategy.
Essentially, the answer was "no".
Reactive culling – killing badgers when there was a TB outbreak – made things worse.
THE KREBS TRIAL
Continue reading the main story
- 30 areas of the country selected, each 100 square km
- 10 culled proactively, 10 reactively, 10 not culled
- Badgers culled through being caught in cage and then shot
- Incidence of bovine TB measured on farms inside and outside study areas
- Reactive culling suspended early after significant rise in infection
- Trial cost £7m per year
- More than 11,000 badgers killed
- Latest follow-up studies equivocal on whether benefit of proactive culling is maintained
Proactive culling – trying to wipe them out from areas irrespective of TB incidence – made things better inside the cull zone, but worse in a ring just outside.
It's from the balance of the two effects in the proactive arm that the 9% figure arose.
Follow-up research on the Krebs sites is still going on, because finding out how along any effect lasts for is clearly important.
As the years go by, you might expect the effects to subside. But the evidence is not entirely clear.
In February this year, the Krebs team published a scientific paper showing that by July 2009, the benefit of proactive culling appeared to have disappeared.
But by the end of 2009, it had apparently come back.
One of these findings is presumably an anomaly.
But finding out which, and painting the true picture, will take yet more follow-up research; and in the meantime, it is going to be impossible for WAG to argue that culling will produce a more substantial impact than a 9% reduction.
Playing possum
Dr Glossop has spoken approvingly of the experience in New Zealand, whose government is also trying to wipe out bovine TB, largely through a wildlife cull.
But the carrier in New Zealand is not the badger but the possum.
Ecologically, badgers and possums are absolutely not the same. If anyone in WAG or any farmers in Wales ever presumed that a New Zealand approach could just be transplanted to Wales, they were wrong scientifically – and, perhaps, ethically.
Introduced from Australia for the fur trade, New Zealand possum numbers soared to about 70 million by the 1980s.
The common brushtailed possum: definitely not a badger
They are culled by lacing carrots with a potent toxin called 1080 and strewing them across the land. Other wildlife are poisoned in the process.
It is a controversial programme, even in a country where some people will happily rig amateur traps for possums and shoot them for fun.
Did Dr Glossop and WAG ministers underestimate the level of opposition that might arise when they proposed culling not a pesky alien invader but an iconic native mammal?
Any new control order would have to go through the Welsh Assembly. Given the unrest that has been documented in the prospective cull region and further afield, will assembly members have the political appetite?
That's one way in which the stars appear to be aligning themselves against Elin Jones and the other cull proponents – and against those in the Westminster government who, like Agriculture Minister James Paice, have been itching to get started in England.
As time goes by, the evidence for a sustained effect of culling is likely to weaken. And TB rates in Pembrokeshire would be expected to fall as the other measures taken by WAG come into effect, including enhanced biosecurity on farms and additional testing of cattle.
Meanwhile, vaccinating badgers becomes a nearer-term prospect, with trials underway in the Irish Republic and poised to begin in England.
Even the Irish government, which endorsed culling nearly a decade ago, does not see killing badgers as a TB eradication tool. For that, it says, an effective vaccine is needed.
Silent killer
Another question is how North Pembrokeshire farmers will react now.
It is an open secret that silent (and illegal) killing of badgers goes on, and not just in Wales.
It is an understandable reaction from a human point of view. But scientifically, it is just about the worst thing a farmer could do.
"The science says it'll make the problem worse," says Dr Rosie Woodroffe, one of the scientists on the Krebs trial who is now based at the Zoological Society of London.
"Small-scale illegal killing will work like reactive culling and will increase the incidence of cattle TB, as it disrupts badgers' social structure, making them range further afield and transmit the bacterium to more badgers and more cattle."
Bookmark with
-
Delicious
-
Digg
-
Facebook
-
reddit
-
StumbleUpon
What are these?
- E-mail this to a friend
Print Sponsor
See also
-
Badger cull halted after appeal
13 July 10Wales politics
-
Opinions split after cull stopped
13 July 10Wales politics
-
Badger culling: Q&A
04 June 10Science & Environment
-
Reaction to ruling
13 July 10Science & Environment
TOP SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT STORIES
-
EU agrees fusion shortfall funds
-
EU to let states rule on GM crops
-
Badger cull halted after appeal
News feeds
FEATURES, VIEWS, ANALYSIS
-
Why Australia’s 3rd city is a magnet for the British
-
Is £200,000 too much for a head teacher?
-
Giant hospital paintings on display after 100 years
Skip to top
Products & services
- E-mail news
- Mobiles
- Alerts
- News feeds
- Podcasts
Skip to the top of the page
bbc.co.uk navigation
Site links
- News Sources
- About BBC News
BBC links
- About the BBC
- BBC Help
- Contact Us
- Accessibility Help
- Terms of Use
- Jobs
- Privacy & Cookies
- Advertise With Us
© MMX
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.
This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.
